Aurelie Thiele This paper extends the Log-robust portfolio management approach to the case with short sales, i.e., the case where the manager can sell shares he does not yet own. We model the continuously compounded rates of return, which have been established in the literature as the true drivers of uncertainty, as uncertain parameters belonging to polyhedral … Read more
We present a data-driven forecasting technique with integrated inventory control for seasonal data and compare it to the traditional Holt-Winters algorithm. Results indicate that the data-driven approach achieves a 2-5% improvement in the average regret. CitationTechnical Report, Lehigh University, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Bethlehem, PA.ArticleDownload View PDF
Uncertain demand in pricing problems is often modeled using the sum of a linear price-response function and a zero-mean random variable. In this paper, we argue that the presence of uncertainty motivates the introduction of nonlinearities in the demand as a function of price, both in the risk-neutral and risk-sensitive models. We motivate our analysis … Read more
In this paper we present a robust optimization approach to portfolio management under uncertainty that (i) builds upon the well-established Lognormal model for stock prices while addressing its limitations, and (ii) incorporates the imperfect knowledge on the true distribution of the continuously compounded rates of return, i.e., the increments of the logarithm of the stock … Read more
In this work, we investigate the value of information when the decision-maker knows whether a perishable product will be in high, moderate or low demand before placing his order. We derive optimality conditions for the probability of the baseline scenario under symmetric distributions and analyze the impact of the cost parameters on simulation experiments. Our … Read more
Inventory management traditionally assumes the precise knowledge of the underlying demand distribution and a risk-neutral manager. New product introduction does not fit this framework because (i) not enough information is available to compute probabilities and (ii) managers are generally risk-averse. In this work, we analyze the value of information for two-stage inventory management in a … Read more
We propose an approach to the classical newsvendor problem and its extensions subject to uncertain demand that: (a) works directly with data, i.e., combines historical data and optimization in a single framework, (b) yields robust solutions and incorporates risk preferences using one scalar parameter, rather than utility functions, (c) allows for tractable formulations, specifically, linear … Read more
Traditional models of decision-making under uncertainty assume perfect information, i.e., accurate values for the system parameters and specific probability distributions for the random variables. However, such precise knowledge is rarely available in practice, and a strategy based on erroneous inputs might be infeasible or exhibit poor performance when implemented. The purpose of this tutorial is … Read more
We present a robust optimization approach to the problem of pricing a capacitated product over a finite time horizon in the presence of demand uncertainty. This technique does not require the knowledge of the underlying probability distributions, which in practice are difficult to estimate accurately, and instead models random variables as uncertain parameters belonging to … Read more