Learning Risk Scores Robust to Unobserved Confounders

We consider the problem of learning risk scores to prioritize individuals for scarce resources or interventions, from historical observational data affected by unobserved confounding. In settings such as public health and homelessness prevention, decisions about who receives a scarce resource (e.g., a hospital bed or housing) are often guided by a risk score assigned to … Read more

Robust Out-of-Distribution Stochastic Optimization with Heterogeneous Inclusive and Exclusive Distribution Clusters

Decision scenarios far from rare in practice often place data-driven decision-making in an awkward position, where the decision maker may have access to neither the target distribution itself nor any empirical samples drawn from it, especially when decisions must be made in novel or highly uncertain environments. In response, robust out-of-distribution stochastic optimization (RooDSO) has … Read more

Betweenness Central Nodes Under Uncertainty: An Absorbing Markov Chain Approach

We propose a betweenness centrality measure and algorithms for stochastic networks, where edges can fail and weights vary across realizations, making the most central node random. Our approach models the sequence of reported central nodes as an absorbing Markov chain and measures node importance by the share of pre-absorption time spent at each node. This … Read more

Two-Stage Data-Driven Contextual Robust Optimization: An End-to-End Learning Approach for Online Energy Applications

Traditional end-to-end contextual robust optimization models are trained for specific contextual data, requiring complete retraining whenever new contextual information arrives. This limitation hampers their use in online decision-making problems such as energy scheduling, where multiperiod optimization must be solved every few minutes. In this paper, we propose a novel Data-Driven Contextual Uncertainty Set, which gives … Read more