Tight Probability Bounds with Pairwise Independence

While useful probability bounds for $n$ pairwise independent Bernoulli random variables adding up to at least an integer $k$ have been proposed in the literature, none of these bounds are tight in general. In this paper, we provide several results towards finding tight probability bounds in this direction. Firstly, when $k = 1$, the tightest … Read more

Discrete Optimal Transport with Independent Marginals is #P-Hard

We study the computational complexity of the optimal transport problem that evaluates the Wasserstein distance between the distributions of two K-dimensional discrete random vectors. The best known algorithms for this problem run in polynomial time in the maximum of the number of atoms of the two distributions. However, if the components of either random vector … Read more

Extremal Probability Bounds in Combinatorial Optimization

In this paper, we compute the tightest possible bounds on the probability that the optimal value of a combinatorial optimization problem in maximization form with a random objective exceeds a given number, assuming only knowledge of the marginal distributions of the objective coefficient vector. The bounds are “extremal” since they are valid across all joint … Read more

Tree Bounds for Sums of Bernoulli Random Variables: A Linear Optimization Approach

We study the problem of computing the tightest upper and lower bounds on the probability that the sum of n dependent Bernoulli random variables exceeds an integer k. Under knowledge of all pairs of bivariate distributions denoted by a complete graph, the bounds are NP-hard to compute. When the bivariate distributions are specified on a … Read more

Exploiting Partial Correlations in Distributionally Robust Optimization

In this paper, we identify partial correlation information structures that allow for simpler reformulations in evaluating the maximum expected value of mixed integer linear programs with random objective coefficients. To this end, assuming only the knowledge of the mean and the covariance matrix entries restricted to block-diagonal patterns, we develop a reduced semidefinite programming formulation, … Read more

On the heavy-tail behavior of the distributionally robust newsvendor

Since the seminal work of Scarf (1958) [A min-max solution of an inventory problem, Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, pages 201-209] on the newsvendor problem with ambiguity in the demand distribution, there has been a growing interest in the study of the distributionally robust newsvendor problem. The optimal order quantity is … Read more

Distributionally Robust Linear and Discrete Optimization with Marginals

In this paper, we study the class of linear and discrete optimization problems in which the objective coefficients are chosen randomly from a distribution, and the goal is to evaluate robust bounds on the expected optimal value as well as the marginal distribution of the optimal solution. The set of joint distributions is assumed to … Read more

Distributionally Robust Markovian Traffic Equilibrium

Stochastic user equilibrium models are fundamental to the analysis of transportation systems. Such models are typically developed under the assumption of route based choice models for the users. A class of link based models under a Markovian assumption on the route choice behavior of the users has been proposed to deal with the drawbacks of … Read more

Worst-Case Expected Shortfall with Univariate and Bivariate Marginals

Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert information is available in terms of bivariate … Read more

Distributionally Robust Project Crashing with Partial or No Correlation Information

Crashing is a method for optimally shortening the project makespan by reducing the time of one or more activities in a project network by allocating resources to it. Activity durations are however uncertain and techniques in stochastic optimization, robust optimization and distributionally robust optimization have been developed to tackle this problem. In this paper, we … Read more