Daniel Kuhn This paper proposes a distributionally robust approach to logistic regression. We use the Wasserstein distance to construct a ball in the space of probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples. If the radius of this ball is chosen judiciously, we can guarantee that it contains the unknown data-generating distribution with high … Read more
We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete) probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples, and we seek decisions that perform best in view of … Read more
We propose to approximate two-stage distributionally robust programs with binary recourse decisions by their associated K-adaptability problems, which pre-select K candidate second-stage policies here-and-now and implement the best of these policies once the uncertain parameters have been observed. We analyze the approximation quality and the computational complexity of the K-adaptability problem, and we derive explicit … Read more
Although stochastic programming problems were always believed to be computationally challenging, this perception has only recently received a theoretical justification by the seminal work of Dyer and Stougie (Mathematical Programming A, 106(3):423–432, 2006). Amongst others, that paper argues that linear two-stage stochastic programs with fixed recourse are #P-hard even if the random problem data is … Read more
The growth-optimal portfolio is designed to have maximum expected log-return over the next rebalancing period. Thus, it can be computed with relative ease by solving a static optimization problem. The growth-optimal portfolio has sparked fascination among finance professionals and researchers because it can be shown to outperform any other portfolio with probability 1 in the … Read more
Over the last two decades, robust optimization has emerged as a computationally attractive approach to formulate and solve single-stage decision problems affected by uncertainty. More recently, robust optimization has been successfully applied to multi-stage problems with continuous recourse. This paper takes a step towards extending the robust optimization methodology to problems with integer recourse, which … Read more
A sharp upper bound on the probability of a random vector falling outside a polytope, based solely on the first and second moments of its distribution, can be computed efficiently using semidefinite programming. However, this Chebyshev-type bound tends to be overly conservative since it is determined by a discrete worst-case distribution. In this paper we … Read more
In stochastic optimal control the distribution of the exogenous noise is typically unknown and must be inferred from limited data before dynamic programming (DP)-based solution schemes can be applied. If the conditional expectations in the DP recursions are estimated via kernel regression, however, the historical sample paths enter the solution procedure directly as they determine … Read more
We investigate the control of constrained stochastic linear systems when faced with only limited information regarding the disturbance process, i.e. when only the first two moments of the disturbance distribution are known. We consider two types of distributionally robust constraints. The constraints of the first type are required to hold with a given probability for … Read more
In a stochastic interdiction game a proliferator aims to minimize the expected duration of a nuclear weapons development project, while an interdictor endeavors to maximize the project duration by delaying some of the project tasks. We formulate static and dynamic versions of the interdictor’s decision problem where the interdiction plan is either pre-committed or adapts … Read more