Daniel Kuhn We propose a statistically optimal approach to construct data-driven decisions for stochastic optimization problems. Fundamentally, a data-driven decision is simply a function that maps the available training data to a feasible action. It can always be expressed as the minimizer of a surrogate optimization model constructed from the data. The quality of a data-driven decision … Read more
We study a robust auction design problem with a minimax regret objective, where a seller seeks a mechanism for selling multiple items to multiple bidders with additive values. The seller knows that the bidders’ values range over a box uncertainty set but has no information on their probability distribution. The robust auction design model we … Read more
Problem definition: Vehicle-to-grid increases the low utilization rate of privately owned electric vehicles by making their batteries available to electricity grids. We formulate a robust optimization problem that maximizes a vehicle owner’s expected profit from selling primary frequency regulation to the grid and guarantees that market commitments are met at all times for all frequency … Read more
Wasserstein balls, which contain all probability measures within a pre-specified Wasserstein distance to a reference measure, have recently enjoyed wide popularity in the distributionally robust optimization and machine learning communities to formulate and solve data-driven optimization problems with rigorous statistical guarantees. In this technical note we prove that the Wasserstein ball is weakly compact under … Read more
We introduce a distributionally robust minimium mean square error estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to recover an unknown signal from a noisy observation. The proposed model can be viewed as a zero-sum game between a statistician choosing an estimator—that is, a measurable function of the observation—and a fictitious adversary choosing a prior—that is, … Read more
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighborhood of the nominal measure and that maximizes the probability of observing … Read more
A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each nominal distribution with an ambiguity set containing all distributions … Read more
Many decision problems in science, engineering and economics are affected by uncertain parameters whose distribution is only indirectly observable through samples. The goal of data-driven decision-making is to learn a decision from finitely many training samples that will perform well on unseen test samples. This learning task is difficult even if all training and test … Read more
We develop a two-stage stochastic program for energy and reserve dispatch, which ensures the safe operation of a power system with a high penetration of renewables and a strong interdependence with the natural gas system. Distributionally robust joint chance constraints with Wasserstein ambiguity sets ensure that there is no need for load shedding and renewable … Read more
We study a distributionally robust mean square error estimation problem over a nonconvex Wasserstein ambiguity set containing only normal distributions. We show that the optimal estimator and the least favorable distribution form a Nash equilibrium. Despite the non-convex nature of the ambiguity set, we prove that the estimation problem is equivalent to a tractable convex … Read more