David Wozabal Multi-stage stochastic programming is notoriously hard, since solution methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Recently, stochastic dual dynamic programming has shown promising results for Markovian problems with many stages and a moderately large state space. In order to numerically solve these problems simple discrete representations of Markov processes are required but a convincing theoretical … Read more
In stochastic programming and stochastic-dynamic programming discretization of random model parameters is often unavoidable. We propose a quasi-Newton learning algorithm to discretize multi-dimensional, continuous discrete-time Markov processes to scenario lattices by minimizing the Wasserstein distance between the unconditional distributions of process and lattice. Scenario lattices enable accurate discretization of the conditional distributions of Markov processes … Read more
We propose the first weather-based algorithmic trading strategy on a continuous intraday power market. The strategy uses neither production assets nor power demand and generates profits purely based on superior information about aggregate output of weather-dependent renewable production. We use an optimized parametric policy based on state-of-the-art intraday updates of renewable production forecasts and evaluate … Read more
We consider the problem of a storage owner who trades in a multi-settlement electricity market comprising an auction-based day-ahead market and a continuous intraday market. We show in a stylized model that a coordinated policy that reserves capacity for the intraday market is optimal and that the gap to a sequential policy increases with intraday … Read more
We propose the first computationally tractable framework to solve multi-stage stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problems in alternating current (AC) power systems. To this end, we use recent results on dual convex semi-definite programming (SDP) relaxations of OPF problems in order to adapt the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) algorithm for problems with a Markovian … Read more
Problem definition: Bargaining situations are ubiquitous in economics and management. We consider the problem of bargaining for a fair ex-ante distribution of random profits arising from a cooperative effort of a fixed set of risk-averse agents. Our approach integrates optimal managerial decision making into bargaining situations with random outcomes and explicitly models the impact of … Read more
We propose a method to compute derivatives of multi-stage linear stochastic optimization problems with respect to parameters that influence the problem’s data. Our results are based on classical envelope theorems, and can be used in problems directly solved via their deterministic equivalents as well as in stochastic dual dynamic programming for which the derivatives of … Read more
In this paper, we propose a semi-metric for Markov processes that allows to bound optimal values of linear Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Similar to existing notions of distance for general stochastic processes our distance is based on transportation metrics. Apart from the specialization to MDPs, our contribution is to make the distance problem specific, i.e., … Read more
Natural gas storage valuation is an important problem in energy trading, yet most valuation approaches are based on heuristics or ignore that gas markets are incomplete. We propose an exact valuation model for incomplete gas markets based on multistage stochastic programming. Market incompleteness structurally changes the problem of storage valuation and asset backed trading and … Read more
We propose a new approach to optimize operations of hydro storage systems with multiple connected reservoirs which participate in wholesale electricity markets. Our formulation integrates short-term intraday with long-term interday decisions. The intraday problem considers bidding decisions as well as storage operation during the day and is formulated as a stochastic program. The interday problem … Read more