Target-Oriented Regret Minimization for Satisficing Monopolists

We study a robust monopoly pricing problem where a seller aspires to sell an item to a buyer. We assume that the seller, unaware of the buyer’s willingness to pay, ambitiously optimizes over a space of all individual rational and incentive compatible mechanisms with a regret-type objective criterion. Using robust optimization, Kocyigit et al. (2021) … Read more

Robust Contextual Portfolio Optimization with Gaussian Mixture Models

We consider the portfolio optimization problem with contextual information that is available to better quantify and predict the uncertain returns of assets. Motivated by the regime modeling techniques for the finance market, we consider the setting where both the uncertain returns and the contextual information follow a Gaussian Mixture (GM) distribution. This problem is shown … Read more

Dual solutions in convex stochastic optimization

This paper studies duality and optimality conditions for general convex stochastic optimization problems. The main result gives sufficient conditions for the absence of a duality gap and the existence of dual solutions in a locally convex space of random variables. It implies, in particular, the necessity of scenario-wise optimality conditions that are behind many fundamental … Read more

A Ramsey-Type Equilibrium Model with Spatially Dispersed Agents

We present a spatial and time-continuous Ramsey-type equilibrium model for households and firms that interact on a spatial domain to model labor mobility in the presence of commuting costs. After discretization in space and time, we obtain a mixed complementarity problem that represents the spatial equilibrium model. We prove existence of equilibria using the theory … Read more

Optimizing investment allocation: a combination of Logistic Regression and Markowitz model

One of the biggest challenges in quantitative finance is the efficient allocation of capital. Thus, in this study, a two-step methodology was proposed, in which a combination of logistic regression and Markowitz model was performed to determine optimized portfolios. In this context, in the first step, fundamentalist indicators were used as inputs to the logistic … Read more

Intraday Power Trading: Towards an Arms Race in Weather Forecasting?

We propose the first weather-based algorithmic trading strategy on a continuous intraday power market. The strategy uses neither production assets nor power demand and generates profits purely based on superior information about aggregate output of weather-dependent renewable production. We use an optimized parametric policy based on state-of-the-art intraday updates of renewable production forecasts and evaluate … Read more

Randomized Policy Optimization for Optimal Stopping

Optimal stopping is the problem of determining when to stop a stochastic system in order to maximize reward, which is of practical importance in domains such as finance, operations management and healthcare. Existing methods for high-dimensional optimal stopping that are popular in practice produce deterministic linear policies — policies that deterministically stop based on the … Read more

Portfolio optimization in the presence of estimation errors on the expected asset returns

It is well known that the classical Markowitz model for portfolio optimization is extremely sensitive to estimation errors on the expected asset returns. Robust optimization mitigates this issue. We focus on ellipsoidal uncertainty sets around the point estimates of the expected asset returns. We investigate the performance of diagonal estimation-error matrices in the description of … Read more

Mean-Covariance Robust Risk Measurement

We introduce a universal framework for mean-covariance robust risk measurement and portfolio optimization. We model uncertainty in terms of the Gelbrich distance on the mean-covariance space, along with prior structural information about the population distribution. Our approach is related to the theory of optimal transport and exhibits superior statistical and computational properties than existing models. … Read more

Revisiting semidefinite programming approaches to options pricing: complexity and computational perspectives

In this paper we consider the problem of finding bounds on the prices of options depending on multiple assets without assuming any underlying model on the price dynamics, but only the absence of arbitrage opportunities. We formulate this as a generalized moment problem and utilize the well-known Moment-Sum-of-Squares (SOS) hierarchy of Lasserre to obtain bounds … Read more