We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained … Read more
Distributionally robust optimization is a popular modeling paradigm in which the underlying distribution of the random parameters in a stochastic optimization model is unknown. Therefore, hedging against a range of distributions, properly characterized in an ambiguity set, is of interest. We study two-stage stochastic programs with linear recourse in the context of distributional ambiguity, and … Read more
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) aims to find robust and generalizable solutions by hedging against data perturbations in Wasserstein distance. Despite its recent empirical success in operations research and machine learning, existing performance guarantees for generic loss functions are either overly conservative due to the curse of dimensionality, or plausible only in large sample asymptotics. … Read more
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a modeling framework in decision making under uncertainty where the probability distribution of a random parameter is unknown while its partial information (e.g., statistical properties) is available. In this framework, the unknown probability distribution is assumed to lie in an ambiguity set consisting of all distributions that are compatible with … Read more
We study the fundamental stochastic newsvendor model that considers both demand and yield randomness. It is usually difficult in practice to describe precisely the joint demand and yield distribution, although partial statistical information and empirical data about this ambiguous distribution are often accessible. We combat the issue of distributional ambiguity by taking a data-driven distributionally … Read more
Wasserstein balls, which contain all probability measures within a pre-specified Wasserstein distance to a reference measure, have recently enjoyed wide popularity in the distributionally robust optimization and machine learning communities to formulate and solve data-driven optimization problems with rigorous statistical guarantees. In this technical note we prove that the Wasserstein ball is weakly compact under … Read more
We introduce a distributionally robust minimium mean square error estimation model with a Wasserstein ambiguity set to recover an unknown signal from a noisy observation. The proposed model can be viewed as a zero-sum game between a statistician choosing an estimator—that is, a measurable function of the observation—and a fictitious adversary choosing a prior—that is, … Read more
The likelihood function is a fundamental component in Bayesian statistics. However, evaluating the likelihood of an observation is computationally intractable in many applications. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approximation of the likelihood that identifies a probability measure which lies in the neighborhood of the nominal measure and that maximizes the probability of observing … Read more
Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) estimators are obtained as solutions of min-max problems in which the statistician selects a parameter minimizing the worst-case loss among all probability models within a certain distance (in a Wasserstein sense) from the underlying empirical measure. While motivated by the need to identify model parameters (or) decision choices that are … Read more
A wide array of machine learning problems are formulated as the minimization of the expectation of a convex loss function on some parameter space. Since the probability distribution of the data of interest is usually unknown, it is is often estimated from training sets, which may lead to poor out-of-sample performance. In this work, we … Read more